Bold Western Conference predictions for 2020-21 season Rockets wait to trade Harden Mavs own best offense

For the first time in decades, the Western Conference is significantly less competitive than the Eastern Conference. That doesn’t necessarily mean it’s worse. It’s just more predictable. As many as half a dozen teams in the East can justifiably consider themselves Finals contenders. Outside of the Clippers, the majority of the West is essentially just fighting for silver. The Lakers are that good.

Yet the West’s staggering talent advantage over the East opens the door for different sorts of stories. There is regular-season history to be made here, narratives to be concluded and individual numbers to be gawked at. The first game between two Western Conference teams this season will be played in Los Angeles. In all likelihood, the last game between two Western Conference teams will be as well. But there are a whole lot of games to be played in between, and here are our bold predictions about what’s going to happen for the rest of the conference as they play them.

Dallas Mavericks: Repeat as best offense in the NBA
Dallas made intentional sacrifices on offense. They gave away Seth Curry to improve their defense and Delon Wright for cap flexibility. Kristaps Porzingis will miss the beginning of the season. Fine. The Mavericks had such a big lead over the field last season that even a sizable dip doesn’t need to knock them off of the top spot. The gap of 2.6 points per 100 possessions between them and the No. 2 Clippers last season was identical to the gap between the No. 2 Clippers and the No. 14 76ers. Some poor shooting luck knocked their clutch offense all the way down to No. 26. That’s going to improve through regression to the mean alone. Short of further injury, Dallas should enter the season as heavy favorites to be the NBA’s No. 1 offense.

Denver Nuggets: Bol Bol plays 750 minutes
Denver isn’t ready to rely on Bol Bol… but didn’t exactly leave itself alternatives. JaMychal Green is more of a matchup center than a consistent backup center. Zeke Nnaji is a rookie as well. Injuries happen. COVID happens. Mason Plumlee and Jerami Grant are gone. There are minutes to be filled here before in-season maladies even occur, and as skeptical as the Nuggets have a right to be about Bol’s NBA readiness, they’re going to have to throw him into the fire sooner or later. This is the happy medium, a small but consistent role that bakes in some injury and matchup-induced absences. He’ll play 15 minutes per game across 50 appearances. No more training wheels.

Golden State Warriors: Will finish outside of the top 10 on offense for the first time with a healthy Stephen Curry under Steve Kerr
Steve Kerr has coached Stephen Curry through five healthy seasons. Never have those Warriors finished below third on offense, but never have those Warriors been without Klay Thompson. The cumulative shooting the Splash Brothers offer has traditionally covered almost any other hole in the Golden State offense, but if Curry is an only child, the floor suddenly looks far more cramped. Andrew Wiggins, Kelly Oubre Jr. and Draymond Green are combined 32.6 percent career 3-point shooters, and that doesn’t even factor in the presence of a center. Golden State finished 12th offensively in Mark Jackson’s last season as coach of the Warriors, but Thompson played that season. Trade Klay in for a system with proper motion and ball-movement and the results should be somewhat similar. Golden State will finish between 11th and 15th on offense.

Houston Rockets: James Harden isn’t traded until the deadline
The Rockets won’t make a decision until the 76ers make a decision on Ben Simmons. Despite both reports and statements to the contrary, the 76ers won’t make a decision until they’ve seen their new team play together. The decision is defensible. Lineups featuring Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid and three shooters have universally thrived in recent years. If they do so again this season, Philadelphia will elect to keep its 24-year-old All-Star rather than trading for a 31-year-old. The Rockets know they can’t possibly do better than Simmons, so they’ll respect Philadelphia’s timeline and wait it out. When the deadline arrives, if Philadelphia’s answer is still no, they’ll move on to other offers. No offer they’ve already received is going to be taken off of the table in March.

Los Angeles Clippers: Will finish in the top five in 3-point attempts
Ty Lue coached two full seasons in Cleveland. Those Cavaliers finished second and fifth in 3-point attempts. The Clippers swapped a non-shooting big man (Montrezl Harrell) for a shooter (Serge Ibaka). Luke Kennard’s playmaking is going to buy him more minutes than Landry Shamet got, assuming he stays healthy. Doc Rivers teams tend not to shoot too many 3-pointers. One of the easiest ways for Ty Lue to optimize this roster is to change that. The Clippers went 14-1 in games in which they attempted at least 38 3’s last season, and 27-5 in games in which they shot at least 34. The more they shoot, the more the